Sharon Savoy, a 65-year-old retiree from just outside Toronto, had always looked forward to her three-month winter retreat to her Miami vacation home. But this year, she found herself reconsidering her plans. “I should be there right now,” Savoy told. “But we’re trying to debate whether or not it’s a good idea to go.” Savoy is not alone. As trade tensions between the US and Canada escalate, many Canadians are reevaluating their ties to the United States, including their real estate investments and travel plans.

Canadians as Major US Property Buyers

Canadians have long been the top foreign buyers of US properties, accounting for 13% of all home purchases in 2024, according to a July report from the National Association of Realtors. These purchases are primarily concentrated in warm-weather states like Florida and Arizona. However, the recent trade disputes have cast a shadow over this trend.

Trade Tensions and Retaliatory Measures

The trade conflict between the US and Canada has been intensifying. US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on all auto imports, which Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney labeled a “direct attack” on Canada. In response, Canada has imposed retaliatory tariffs on billions of dollars worth of American goods. This tit-for-tat approach has not only affected trade but also strained the relationship between the two countries.

The Effect on Canadian Tourism and Real Estate

The trade tensions have had a noticeable impact on Canadian tourism to the US. According to the US Travel Association, Canada is the top source of international visitors to the United States. A hypothetical 10% reduction in Canadian travel could result in $2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses. Recent data shows a significant slowdown in Canadian tourism, with 13% fewer trips by air and 23% fewer trips by car to the US in February compared to the previous year. Flight reservations from Canada to the US have also plummeted by over 70% every month from March through September.

This decline in tourism is also reflected in the real estate market. US-based Realtors in Arizona and Florida report an increase in calls from Canadians looking to sell their properties. Stephen Fine, president of Snowbird Advisor, a Canadian company that provides real estate guidance to snowbirds, said many of his clients feel “angry, upset, disappointed, and frustrated”. Some are even considering alternative winter destinations or selling their US properties altogether.

Economic and Political Factors

The weakened Canadian dollar has added to the economic pressures faced by Canadian snowbirds. Last month, the Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level against the US dollar since 2003. This depreciation has made everyday goods more expensive for Canadians and has incentivized some to sell their US properties to capitalize on the favorable exchange rate.

Politically, the situation has also taken a toll. Many Canadians, like Savoy, are putting off visits to their US homes to show solidarity with their country. “I don’t want my country to feel like I’m betraying them during this threatening time,” Savoy said. This sentiment is echoed by many who are reconsidering their investments and travel plans.

Future Outlook

The future of Canadian snowbirds in the US remains uncertain. While some, like Savoy, are merely postponing their visits, others are taking more drastic measures by selling their properties. This exodus could further strain the already troubled housing markets in states like Florida, which is dealing with a record number of homes for sale due to rising insurance premiums and climate change risks.

As trade tensions continue to simmer, the relationship between the US and Canada is at a critical juncture. The decisions made in the coming months will not only affect trade and tourism but also the lives of thousands of Canadians who have come to rely on their US homes as a winter retreat. The path forward will require careful negotiation and a willingness to find common ground to mitigate the economic and social impacts of the current trade war.